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10r 1 RESOLUTION NO. 2 3 A Resolution of the City of South Miami, Florida, 4 authorizing the City Attorney to submit an Agency 5 Report supporting an Alternate Corridor to the US1 6 transmission corridor proposed by Florida Power and 7 Light Cc; and providing for an effective date. 8 9 Whereas, Florida Power & Light Co. ( "FPL ") has filed an 10 application for an administrative hearing before the State Of 11 Florida Division Of Administrative Hearings (DOAH) which was 12 granted and assigned Case No. 09- 3575 -EPP and styled IN RE: 13 FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT CO. TURKEY POINT UNITS 6 AND 7 POWER 14 PLANT SITING APPLICATION NO. PA03 -45A3; and 15 16 Whereas, FPL has proposed installing a new high- voltage 17 transmission line through the City of South Miami; and 18 19 Whereas, the City Commission has previously expressed a 20 desire to propose an alternate corridor for FPL's transmission 21 line; and 22 23 Whereas, the City of South Miami contracted with Dr. 24 Richard Weisskoff, an economic professor at the University of 25 Miami, for the preparation of an economic report concerning the 26 economic effects of FPL's proposed transmission lines on the US 27 1 corridor, and which supports the Village of Pinecrest's 28 Alternate Corridor Proposal that would bypass the City of South 29 Miami; and 30 31 Whereas, Dr. Weisskoff's report projects considerable 32 economic harm to the municipalities along the US 1 corridor in 33 the event that the transmission lines are built as proposed by 34 FPL; and 35 36 Whereas, the City is a party to FPL's case before DOAH and 37 the judge in that case has ordered that all agency reports, 38 including those by municipalities, either in support or in 39 opposition to FPL's planned power plant and its proposed 40 transmission line corridor be filed by June 15, 2011. 41 42 NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE MAYOR AND CITY 43 COMMISSION OF THE CITY OF SOUTH MIAMI, FLORIDA: 44 45 Section 1: The City Attorney for the City of South 46 Miami is directed to file an Agency Report on behalf of the 47 City, which incorporates the economic report prepared by Dr. Pagel of 2 I Richard Weisskoff, and which recommends and supports the 2 proposed alternate corridor. 3 4 Section 2. This resolution shall become effective upon 5 adoption. 6 7 PASSED AND ADOPTED this day of 2011. 8 9 10 ATTEST: APPROVED: 11 12 13 14 CITY CLERK MAYOR 15 16 17 COMMISSION VOTE: 18 READ AND APPROVED AS TO FORM 19 AND SUFFICIENCY: Mayor Stoddard: 20 Vice Mayor Newman: 21 Commissioner Palmer: 22 Commissioner Beasley: 23 CITY ATTORNEY Commissioner Harris: Page 2 of 2 Corridor to Nowhere: Economic Impacts of FPL's Proposed Transmission Line on the US 1 Corridor By Richard Weisskoff, Ph.D. Submitted to the City of South Miami May 27, 2011 Draft 3.2 (this page left blank, inside cover page) Executive Summary FPL's proposed Eastern 230 kV Transmission Corridor, proposed to route power from two new nuclear power plants proposed for construction at Turkey Point, would occupy an economically critical segment of the US 1 corridor stretching from the Falls to Brickell that currently lacks such transmission lines. Since the mid 1990's, the US 1 Corridor north from Broward to St. Lucie County had become the cornerstone of the South Florida Region's strategy of compact growth, `Eastward, Ho(" and has been incorporated into the South Miami -Dade Watershed Study of 2007. These studies form the basis of the current anti- sprawl and compact growth policies of the South Florida Region. (Section 1). The introduction of high voltage transmission lines on 105 ft high, 4 -foot diameter, concrete poles from the Falls to Brickell on US 1 inserts a major disamenity or blockage into this gateway to Miami and into its rapidly growing southern neighborhoods. Addition of aboveground transmission lines shatters the strategy of compact growth, changes the nature of the urban corridor, and will produce severe and deleterious economic effects. Projected economic consequences of FPL's proposed transmission lines on the existing and future economy of the US 1 corridor have not been included in the combined operating license application (COLA) for Turkey Point nuclear reactors 6 & 7. This report details the probable consequences on the existing economy. • FPL's proposed US I transmission line corridor directly affects a minimum of 173,000 people or 7.2% of the county's residents (derived from the ZIP Code map, Figure 2.2 and Table 2.1). But seen as the gateway to the South Miami -Dade Watershed region and areas to the North including the City of Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Pinecrest, and Palmetto Bay, the area is a portal and corridor for almost a million people or 38% of the county's residents (Table 2.2). • The value of the 4,091 parcels (buildings and land) within two blocks on both sides of the transmission line route was assessed at $4.03 billion in 2010, including FPL Corridor Option 1 at Brickell, 16 '' to 136 Street SW, and FPL's proposed corridor around Dadeland (Table 3.3). We examined the literature on effects of transmission line proximity on property values. Overall we found a high degree of concordance between surveys of real estate professionals and statistical analyses by academicians, with industry consultants consistently publishing lesser effects. Real estate professionals reported a 10.3% decline, academicians a 12.6% decline, and industry consultants a 2.7% decline. A detailed regression study of an area with an urban density most comparable to that found along US 1 revealed a 10% decline in value (Des Rossiers, 2002; Table 4.2). We have applied an array of loss rates: 5 %, 10 %, 20 %, and 34% to reflect the range of findings from studies done in other regions. Based on the literature, our best conservative estimate is to expect a minimum of 10% property loss from construction of transmission lines on US 1, but losses as high as 20% could occur as this value was found in the higher income neighborhoods of Montreal in the study by Des Rossiers (2002). The 10% and 20% Loss rates applied to the FPL transmission line corridor would create declines in property values of $400 and $800 million respectively. • At a 10% property loss rate, local municipalities would lose an aggregate of $9.3 million in property taxes annually (Table 5.1). Total revenue losses would be approximately $24.5 million annually. The 10% property value loss rate translates into a total job loss ranging from 4,382 to 8,040 jobs, depending on the labor - intensity of the job sectors that are most affected. The economic cost of the average expected job loss is $300 million per year. We note two anecdotal cases of urban power lines in South Florida associated with economic loss and urban blight: 1. A set of power lines occupy the portion of West 63`d St., North Miami Beach that fronts 6205 Laguna Path, a 4 story, $1.5 million townhouse, part of the Aqua project on Allison Island that was purchased in 2005 prior to construction, on the basis of the promoter's models and drawings. Once built, however, the owner realized that the spectacular living room view of the channel was marred by the powerlines and poles in the center stage. The owner has therefore kept the property off the market due to the severe penalty caused by the disamenity of visible aboveground power lines. 2. The State Road 7 / US 441 corridor in Broward County has, since 2004, been designated as a growth corridor by the both County and the South Florida Regional Planning Council. However, the transmission lines along the route may have effectively turned investors away (Section 6). • Our best prediction of economic loss to municipalities along the proposed US 1 corridor is severe: approximately $400 million in property losses, $300 million a year in household income from job losses, and $25 million a year in losses to municipal revenue. • We caution that the path proposed by FPL to transmit the energy needed for economic growth in the region will likely become both the assassin and graveyard of economic activity and growth, a "corridor to nowhere ". rd Economic Impacts of the FPL Transmission Lines in the US I Corridor Contents Executive Summary 3 1: History of the Corridor, References 7 2: Population 10 3. Value of Corridor Property 12 4. Literature Review: Effect of Transmission Lines on Property Value, References 13 5. Value of Property and Job Loss in Miami -Dade County 18 6. Stories of the Special Case & Conclusion 20 List of Graphics Tables 1.1 Measures of sprawl and South Florida appetite for land, 1995 -2010 11 IMPLAN socio- economic data of the FPL Corridor by ZIP Codes 2.2 Projecting Population Growth and Expansion in the Corridor 3.1 Sample appraisal valuation of properties near transmission lines, 26 -36 St. 3.2 Sample of County land use codes found in Table 3.1 above 3.3 Summary Table of summed appraisal values by segments, Brickell to SW 136 St. 4.1 Review of survey results: transmission line effect on property prices 4.2 Review of statistical (regression analysis) studies of transmission line effect on property prices 4.3 Statistical analysis of possible bias in percent value losses across the different literature types 5.1 Summary: property adjacent to the transmission lines 5.2 Employment impacts at 5, 10, 20, and 34% loss levels: IMPLAN, various sectors 5.3 REMI Model: Job losses over time: different scenarios and time periods 5.3 Economic effect of job loss Figures 2.1 Watershed interactive network (Williams, 1995) 2.2 ZIP Code map of the FPL proposed Eastern corridor and Southern Corridor 2.3 Minor statistical areas for the FPL proposed Eastern corridor and Southern extension (M -D P &Z) 2.4 South Miami -Dade Watershed Plan corridor map (2007) 5.1 Blocks of the REMI Model and some connections Graphs 5.1 How long the job loss? Effects of 10% property loss on different time spans 5.2 How deep the trough? Effects on jobs of different sectors taking the hit of spending cuts (page left blank) Section 1. History of the Corridor: Between Ocean and Swamp The growth of Miami in the past decades has been an alternating clash between "sprawl - and- spread" growth, on the one hand, and "compact- and - compressed" growth with higher densities, on the other. One would think that Miami, a city constrained between the ocean and the swamp, would have been forced to grow upward, not outward. Geography alone would dictate that compactness and density would win over sprawl. The record shows otherwise: indeed, of Florida's counties on the lower East coast, Miami -Dade is already the most densely populated with 8:4 people per urban acre, more than Broward with 7.2 inhabitants per acre. (See Table 1. 1, col. 3, lines 1-2.) But the average for the nine South Florida counties is half Miami - Dade's density or 4.8 people per urban acre. More important than density is a measure of the historical "responsiveness" of urban land absorption as the population grows. Economists call this responsiveness "the elasticity of demand for urban land with respect to urban population growth" and we measure it in terms of the percentage change in land relative to the percent change in. urban population for a given time period and county. We computed the elasticities for a number of counties using two comparable land use studies done in 1988 and 1995 (Table l.l, col. 4). The value for Miami -Dade is 0.910, or almost unity, which means that historically, a 10% increase in urban population has been associated with a 9.1 % increase in urban land occupancy. Note that the elasticity value for Miami -Dade is the highest of all the counties in Table 1.1. Indeed, only the values for St. Martin (0.76) and for the lower West coast counties (0.88) approach Miami - Dade's "sprawl tendency." This sprawl tendency means simply that Miami -Dade incorporated 44.5 thousand new urban acres from 1995 to 2010 to accommodate its growing population (Table 1. 1, col. 9). This kind of land- intensive growth expresses itself in the periodic wars to push the Urban Development Boundary westward and to fill in ecologically precarious lands, reduce parklands, and build on any kind of open space. Palm Beach County took 44.6 thousand acres, and that, with a lower elasticity (0.55) but a higher rate of population growth (33% vs. 20% for Miami - Dade). But on Florida's lower West coast, the population of the four sprawl - setting counties grew by 108% (Table 1.1 , col. 7) and transformed 284 thousand acres into urban land. Clearly, with these historical parameters, the continued growth of the cities in their traditional manner is unsustainable. If the historical tendencies are not checked, the future of the Everglades is doomed as the cities seek more and more of the marshy land to fill in and build upon. In the southern suburbs of Miami, however, developers had learned early to make peace with precarious coastal lowlands due to the high water table, frequent floods, the exuberance of the hurricanes, and the multitude transversal creeks and canals, simply in order to capitalize on the sheer beauty of the place. Dan Williams' South Dade Watershed Project (1995) offered a planner's visualization of the region, which could work neatly with another approach that could be realized in South Florida. The Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida, which started to meet monthly in the mid - nineties, began to promote a more compact development by pushing eastward, not westward, in order to remove pressure on the agricultural lands and on the water collection areas of the Everglades. As the Everglades were to be "re- hydrated" and water levels raised, the adjacent cities would require great flood protection and better drainage. The built area would have to be kept back, intensified, filled in, and the economic impetus to sprawl — the reward for converting freshwater marshland into houses — would have to be kept in check (see SF Regional Planning Council 1996, and Burchell 1999). At the same time, researchers were showing that the "sprawl- model" by which most of Florida had been developed was merely shifting the costs of infrastructure from the private developer (who took his profit up front) to the counties and municipalities who then had to tax the new residents to cover their new costs. Burchell computed the detailed costs of sprawl for New Jersey (2000), most major U.S. cities (2002), and the saving that South Florida could realize by compact development (2003). A special six - volume study was completed in 2002 on the retention of the agricultural land and those strategies and policies that would keep the South Dade farmer in business (Degner & Morgan, eds., 2002). Miami -Dade County, together with the other agencies, sponsored a million dollar South Miami -Dade Watershed Study (2007) which today offers a clear plan which comprehends and builds on these earlier visions. The drive to sprawl could be checked, the farm lands protected, and the Urban Development Boundary held, all by focusing development on the US 1 corridor which had several distinct advantages: a rapid transit system; an exclusive busway; the high coastal ridge to minimize flooding in view of future sea level rise; home to a variety of income groups and land uses. A series of charettes propelled the ideas: the cities and towns would become focal points for development along the corridor: Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Pinecrest, Palmetto Bay, Cutler Bay – and the small towns too – Leisure City, Naranja, Princeton, Goulds, Cutler Ridge, Perrine —and the endpoints, Florida City and Homestead. With commercial, residential, and industrial growth concentrated along the straight and naturally elevated US I corridor, the remaining agricultural lands and open spaces would be retained and the urban infrastructure consolidated. The Plan (2007) was widely publicized and the collaborating towns and cities along the route began laying the groundwork for new city - centers, higher densities, and more compact zoning. Into this setting enter the FPL transmission lines. They clash, head -on, with two decades of work by the local communities and county planners. Along this very route are to be strung the three 230 KV lines with 80' to105' high concrete poles every 300 ft., held in place by guyed wires where needed. Possibly three or more "underbuilt" lines are to be strung lower down the poles. The poles themselves measure almost 4 feet in diameter, such that the hands of two grown men hugging the poles on opposite sides barely reach one another. The poles dwarf the neighboring buildings, hospital, shops and schools; they block the sidewalks if they are placed near the curb to suspend the lines over the roadway. What are the economic impacts of running the lines from the Falls up US 1 to Brickell? What would the true cost be to the society which has already launched itself onto a risky but rational venture of compact growth along that very corridor? General References for Chapter 1: Introduction to the Issues Arranged Chronologically: 1. South Dade Watershed Project, 1995. Planning Document. Miami: Center for Urban and Community Design, University of Miami, and South Florida Water Management District. 2. South Florida Regional Planning Council, 1996. Eastward Ho! Revitalizing Southeast Florida's Urban Core. (Initiative of the Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida). Hollywood. (pamphlet; also posted on sfrpc.com website). 3. Burchell, R.W., 1999. Eastward He! Development Futures: Paths to More Efficient Growth in Southeast Florida. Tallahassee, FL: Dept. of Community Affairs, 4. Burchell, R.W., 2000. The Costs and Benefits of Alternative Growth Patterns: The Impact Assessment of the New Jersey State Plan. New Brunswick, NJ: State University of New Jersey (Rutgers), Center for Urban Policy Research, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, 5. Burchell, R.W. et al., 2002. Costs of Sprawl, 2000. Transit Cooperative Research Program, TCRP Report 74. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 6. Degner, R.L. & Morgan, K.L., eds., 2002. Miami -Dade County Agricultural Land Retention Study (6 Vols.), FAMRC Industry Report 02 -02, Gainesville, FL: University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. 7. Burchell, R.W., et al., 2003. Projected Development in the GEER (Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration) Region and Potential Resource Savings by Employing a Compact Development Growth Regime. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University, Center for Urban Policy Research. 8. Weisskoff, R., 2005. Economics of Everglades Restoration Missing Pieces in the Future of South Florida. Cheltenham, UK; Edward Elgar. 9. Miami -Dade County, 2007. South Miami -Dade Watershed Study and Plan: Planning for a sustainable healthy environment and economy. Posted at: http://southmiamidadewatersbed.net/ 10. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Smart Growth Implementation Assistance Program, 2010. Growing for a Sustainable Future: Miami -Dade County Urban Development Boundary Assessment. htip• / /www naiamidade gov /PlanZone/ Library /Miami- DadoFinalReport(EPA )12- 17-10.pd£ Accessed May 1, 2011. 10 Section 2. Population in the FPL Corridor How many people will be affected directly by FPL's proposed transmission line corridor on US 1? We used three sources for deriving population figures: 1) ZIP Code zones along the route. 2) Miami -Dade Planning and Zoning Dept. Projections from the year 2000 onwards for minor statistical areas. 3) South Miami -Dade Watershed Study estimates and projections for the region. The IMPLAN file for Miami -Dade County provides economic information on population and business activity for all 79 ZIP Codes of Miami -Dade County. We have selected the eight ZIP Codes through which FPL's proposed Eastern Corridor passes (see accompanying Map 2.1). The population of the "ZIP Code corridor" is almost 207,000 persons living on 49 square miles, making for a density of 4,218 people per square mile; Table 2. 1, lines 2 -4, col. 1). This population constitutes 8.6% of the County's total population, living on 2.5% of the land area, creating a density that is 3.4 times the countywide average (Table 2. 1, col. 3, lines 2 -4). Almost 160,000 people are employed in the corridor, or 11.1 % of the County's total workforce. Total personal income is $12.6 billion, which is 14% of the county total. Household income averages $145,000, or 145% of the countywide average of $100,322 (Table 2.1, tines 7 -8, cols. 1 -3). By extending the US 1 corridor all the way to Homestead (Table 2. 1, col. 4), we add more area and more families. The entire corridor encompasses 16% of the county's population, households, and workforce (Table 2. 1, lines 2, 5, 6) and 21 % of its total personal income. The overall population density of the entire corridor is lower than the FPL Eastern corridor on US 1, but is still 2.2 times the countywide average, and household income averages $127,000, which is 127% of the countywide average. In summary, then, the ZIP Code corridor is the narrowest economic area around the FPL proposed Eastern corridor and encompasses 9% of the population, 11% of the jobs, and 14% of the county's personal income. Its density is 3.4 times higher than the county II average, and household incomes average 45% higher than the county average. It is the high -end corridor into Miami. A statistical "cut" of the corridor, which is broader than the ZIP Code file, is provided by the Miami -Dade County "minor statistical areas" (Table 2.2.). According to this measure, the population of the FPL Corridor was 349,000 in 2000 or 15.5% of the county, projected to reach 402,000 by 2015. The addition of five more statistical areas for the "southern extended" corridor adds another 176,000 people, totaling 23% of the County's population in 2000 and projected to reach 38% of the County by 2025. (Table 2.2, line 9). The broadest boundary around the FPL proposed Eastern corridor on US I is drawn by the South Miami -Dade Watershed Study (Table 2.2, line C), which views the entire region as a single unit of almost a million people or 38% of the County's population. In summary, the ZIP Code file gives the narrowest number of people in the zone, or 207,000 or 8.6% of the county's population. The County's Planning and Zoning "Statistical Areas" draws a larger corridor boundary with 349,000 people or 15.5% of the county, and the Watershed Study comprehends an even larger area with about a million people or 38% of the county. But in addition to the sheer number of people living in the corridor area, our concern now turns to the economic value likely to be affected by the addition of new above - ground transmission lines on the corridor in question. 12 Section 3. The Value of Corridor Property We divided the FPL Corridor Route into 13 segments, from SW 1.6`h to SW 136 St., plus Option I at Brickell and the "noose" around Dadeland. We examined a total of 4,091 properties on two blocks on both sides of the transmission line route. We noted their CLUC (land use codes), address, square footage, value of land, value of building, and total market value (see sample in Table 3.1). The variety of land uses is broad. In the sample of properties shown in Table 3.1 which refer to SW 26 -36 Streets, on both sides of US I, we recorded 21 different land uses, including commercial, industrial, institutional, residential, and many vacant properties. These data could be valuable research tool for identifying potential areas for land use improvements in the corridor (see Table 3.2 for a summary of the Land Use Codes found in the sample properties). We have found that the total market value for all land and buildings, two blocks on both sides of US I is $4,031,771,963 just over $4.03 billion (Table 3.3.)x. This estimate raises three further questions, only one of which will we attempt to answer in this report. The first and most important question is, "What is the impact of the transmission lines on the value of these properties and the economic activity they generate ?" The second question is not explored here, but is extremely important nonetheless. If the current value of local properties has already lost perhaps half of their value in the recent economic meltdown, then to what extent will the future (and presumably recovering) value be affected by FPL's proposed transmission lines on the US 1 corridor? This question assumes that the recovery continues, as FPL assumes, and which is the entire basis of the need for the new transmission lines in the first place (e.g., Statement of Need, approved by the Public Service Commission on 1 I April 2008). Third, what is the loss of investment in expansion and new construction that would be scheduled for the high- density corridor that now, with the transmission lines, might be deterred and seek other places if not other counties? What is the cost of returning to the The team of University of Miami graduate students participating in this project were: Vania Baker, Meisha Brisbane, Ali Bustamante, Sephanie Cazobon, Patricia Guia- Martini, Andrej Lampe, Carl Mbao, Meisha Meade, Martha Rodriguez, Mathieu Root, Sarah Slater and Lina Sokol. Edward Laird constructed a 40 ft. array of panels using aerial photographs of the entire proposed US I. Corridor, Mr. Laird also created a full -size cardboard replica of the base segment of a typical 4 ft. diameter transmission line pole. 13 sprawling, non - compact growth pattern if high -rise residential and business construction shuns the transmission line corridor? In the absence of published studies of the impact of transmission lines on property values in Florida, we shall turn now to a detailed review of the published literature and their findings. 14 Section 4. Literature review of the decline in property value adjacent to transmission lines. Two types of studies have been applied to measure the economic impacts of transmission lines on property value: the questionmaire- survey and statistical regression analysis. The former asks questions of industry experts and buyers of property. The latter uses data of sales and detailed records of the characteristics of those properties. One type of direct survey inquires as to the magnitude of the loss or gain due to transmission lines, and a second asks simply if is the properties experience a loss or gain of value. Among the responses to the questionnaires sent to appraisers, real estate professionals, and purchasers overwhelmingly cite transmission lines as a disamenity, that is, a downward influence on price. (Table 4. 1, cols. 6 -7). Only one survey found no effect (Table 4. 1, line 6). The average loss for the 12 reporting cases was 10.3 %. Among the 11 surveys inquiring simply if there was a gain or loss due to transmission lines, (without estimating the magnitude of that loss or gain), an average of 57% of respondents reported a loss; in 3 studies, 46% of the respondents said "no loss, no gain," and 2 surveys, 10.5 %, reported gains, usually due to larger parcel sizes or to the recreational amenities and low traffic associated with transmission line easements (Table 4. 1, cols. 11 -13, bottom line). In the statistical regression analysis, the researchers use multivariate statistical techniques to measure the "contribution" of the transmission line to the value of the house. This variable itself may get redefined into other dimensions: distance from the transmission line, front or rear sighting, noise, plus the wide array normal variables, such as year of construction, rooms, lot size, and other amenities. But these observations appear, and measurements can be "made ", only when the houses are sold. What if the house cannot be sold, as may occur if the owner is unwilling or unable to take the market loss and chooses to hold on to his otherwise "devalued" property? In such cases, the "loss of value" is never realized, the measurement is never made, and the "observation" never appears in the data set. Moreover, the "loss" of housing or commercial construction foregone due to the transmission line is not recorded in these data. For this reason, empirical data sets may provide an overly optimistic estimate of actual property values adjacent to transmission lines. 15 Including all eighteen regression studies, the mean recorded loss attributable to transmission line proximity was 6.4% (Table 4.2, line 22, col. 7; Table 4.3). However, we consider the possibility of bias within these studies. For instance, studies published in peer - reviewed journals are universally considered more reliable than those published without peer review. Likewise, studies performed by industry consultants are likely to find outcomes favorable to industry because a consulting firm stands to be hired again if its results favor the industry's interest. We analyzed the literature for evidence of these two potential biases, journal type and author employment (Table 4.3). We found that studies by industry consultants reported significantly lower mean (average) property devaluations from transmission line proximity than studies by academics, 2.7% vs. 12.6% (p= 0.004, Table 4.3). For non - statisticians, the Fisherian significance value, "p= 0.004" can be interpreted to mean that elves rolling dice would only obtain a difference in mean roll scores as extreme or more extreme than the difference in reported devaluation means no more than four times in a thousand. In other words, such an extreme difference between the author groups (industry consultant vs. academic) is extremely unlikely to have been obtained by chance alone, and thus likely has an underlying cause. We posit this cause to be financial conflict of interest experienced by industry consultants. Examining the effect of journal type, we found that the non -peer- reviewed literature reported a lesser decline on average than the peer reviewed literature, 4.25% vs. 8.6 %. While the difference is not statistically significant (t -test, 1- tailed, unequal variance, t =1.38, p= 0.09), one data point falls more than three standard deviations beyond the mean, the accepted statistical standard for outlier exclusion; a study prepared by the University of Quebec for Hydro - Quebec found transmission line proximity associated with a 17% decline in property value. Omitting this statistical outlier from this analysis, the mean value decline in non -peer- reviewed literature is a 2.67% and the difference between peer - reviewed and non - peer - reviewed literature is statistically significant (t =2.18, p= 0.03). Even within the peer- reviewed literature, industry consultants reported significantly lower devaluations than academics, 2.3% vs.13.3% (t =2.99, p= 0.01). Which group of studies is most accurate? The question is resolved by the corroboration of the academic regression studies by the real estate professional 16 questionnaire surveys. Surveys of real estate professionals reported an average 10.3% loss of property values due to transmission line proximity, a figure in concordance with the 12.6% average reported in the academic studies, and much higher than the 2.7% reported by industry consultants. We place confidence in the concordance between the realtor surveys and the academic regression studies. Seeking studies most geographically and economically similar to US 1, we imagined the ideal study in which urban property values along a major thoroughfare were measured before and after the construction of a high - voltage transmission line. It hasn't been published yet. Most published studies analyzed corridors that pass through small towns between major cities, but the study by Des Rossiers (2002) examined the city of Brossard in the Greater Montreal Area (Table 4.2, line 7), a region directly comparable to the urban character of FPL's proposed US 1 corridor. That city of 69,000 is smaller than our corridor of 207,000 people (as measured by the ZIP Code areas, Table 2.1 above), but Brossard's density of 4,059 people per sq. mile is very similar to our corridor's density of 4,218 people per sq mile. Des Rossiers (2002) used a sample of 507 single- family houses sold between 1991 . and 1996, but the high - voltage transmission line corridor was itself two miles long and 200 ft. wide, and not built alongside a major thoroughfare: their 315 kV lines were run on high pylons down the middle of its exclusive corridor, whereas US 1 would feature 230 kV lines situated along the roadway. Des Rossiers' study is outstanding in the number of variables tested (62), the numerous geographical and class divisions of the city, the number of models tested, and the forms of the equations fitted. In Brossard, Des Rossiers found transmission line proximity produced on average a 10% loss of residential property value and a maximum loss of 20% in certain locations. An earlier of another Quebec site (Table 4.2, line 7, Universite du Quebec, 1982) found a maximum of 34% value loss. The concordance between Des Rossier's study (10% loss), the realtor surveys (10.3% loss), and the academic regression studies (12.6% loss) give us confidence that 10% is a reliable and conservative figure for the property value loss within two blocks of FPL's US 1. Below we apply a range of property loss rate projections to the property corridor: 5 %, 10 %, 20 %, and 34 %, then select 10% for our remaining calculations. 17 In our review of 42 studies, important questions arise, for example: 1) For how long does the disamenity last? One year? Ten years? Some studies found that prices "normalized" after 20 years. 2) Over what distance is the disamenity "effective "? One block? Two blocks? 200 meters? The literature shows that distance depends on the field of vision, the height of the towers, and intervening structures and foliage. 3) Some studies report no loss of sale price, but rather a longer time period to sell the property at the asking price. Such an economic effect fails to show up in the regression analysis but requires the conversion of the lost time into the price variable. 4) Literature shows that the perception of the disamenity is itself the "real" cause of lost value, so that, for example, developers of upscale restaurants, car dealerships, hospitals, and daycare centers are likely to avoid the transmission line corridor altogether. Section 4: References A. General — Transmission Lines and Property Values: 1. Fik, T.J., D.C. Ling, & G.F. Mulligan, 2003. "Modeling Spatial Variation in Housing Prices: A Variable Interaction Approach." Real Estate Economics 31, 4, pp. 623 -646. professors at University of Florida and University of Arizona. Theoretical models: dummy, distance, access don't explain location; need a unique `location value signature" and other site, structural and independent attributes plus interactions. 2. Wilson, A. R. 2006. "Real Property Damages and Rubber Rulers." Real Estate Issues, Summer, pp. 25- 31. Private consultant in Woodland Park, CO. Damage diminution, location discussion. 3. Pitts, J. M. and T.O. Jackson, 2007. "Power Lines and Property Values Revisited." Appraisal Journal, Fall 2007 pp. 323 -325. (general descriptive; not original). Stigma: 4. Elliot, P. & D. Wadley, 2002. "The Impact of Transmission Lines on Property Values: come to terms with stigma." Property Management 20,2 pp. 137 -151 U. of Queensland, Australia Legal issues, "just compensation" 5. Furby, L, R. Gregory, P. Slovic, & B. Fischhoff, 1988. `Electric Power Transmission Lines, Property Values, and Compensation." Journal of Environmental Mana eig Went 27, pp. 69 -83. All are private consultants in Eugene, OR. 6. Orel, L.J., 1994( ?), "Perceived Risks of EMFs and Landowner Compensation." University of New Hampshire Law Review, vol 6, Winter. htti)://Iaw.unb.edu/risk/vol6/winter /orel.htLn 7. Gell, C. 1999. `Shocking Overheads — Power Lines." National Association of Real Estate Appraisers (UK). Review of General Statistical Studies and Issues: IIM 8. Bolton, D.R. & K.A. Sick, 1999. "Power Lines and Property Values: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly." Urban Lawyer, Spring, 31, 2. Authors are consultants in Austin,. TX. Early lit review. Detailed Review of All Types of Statistical Studies: 9. Kroll, C.A. & Priestley, T., 1992, . "The Effects of Overhead Transmission Lines on Property Values: A Review and Analysis of the Literature." Report prepared for the Edison Electric Institute Siting and Environmental Planning Task Force, Internet Edition (Washington, D.C.) Survey Questionnaires: Nation -wide survey: 10. Delaney, C.J. & Timmons, D., 1992. "High Voltage Power Lines: Do They Affect Residential Property Value ?" Journal of Real Estate Research 7, 3, Summer, pp. 315 -329. Prof., Baylor University, Waco, TX, and UT, San Antonio, TX. Memphis, TN: 11.. Kung, H. & Seagle, C.F., 1992. "Impact of Power Transmission Lines on Property Values: A Case Study." The Appraisal Journal, 60, 3, Jul, pp. 413 -418. Sponsored by Memphis State U and Memphis Area Assoc of Realtors Educ. Foundation. Authors: geography professor at Memphis State University and real estate appraiser. (Concludes: value sensitivity depends on awareness and perception of power line dangers.) Minnesota: 12. Mittemess, C. and S. Mooney. 1998. "Power Line Perceptions: Their Impact on Value and Market Time." Paper presented at ARES Annual Meeting 1998. 14 pp (Review of 6 surveys; asks buyers. SS (Professor at St. Cloud State University, MN). Regression -type studies: Reviews of Regression studies 13. Gallimore, P. & M.R. Jaye, 1999. "Public and Professional Perceptions of HVOTL risks: the Problem of Circularity." Journal of Property Research 16, 3, pp. 243 -255. Reviews early regression model results. Professor at Nottingham Trent University & Staffordshire University Business School, UK. 14, Jackson, T.O. & J. Pitts. 2010. "The Effects of Electric Transmission Lines on Property Values: A Literature Review." Journal of Real Estate Literature, 18, 2. pp. 239 -259. Authors are Texas A &M professors and real estate consultant; no funding source given. They conclude there are no effects.) Original regression studies Academic: - - - Decatur, ILL: 15, Colwell, P.F. & Foley, K.W., 1979. "Electric Transmission Lines and the Selling Price of Residential Property." The Appraisal Journal Oct., pp. 490 -99. Prof. at U Ill, Urbana - Champaign and real estate agent with Illinois Power Company. The first study to find falling price with proximity to Power Lines. 16. Colwell, P.F., 1990. "Power Lines and Land Value." Journal of Real Estate Research, 5, 117 -27. Finds the "power line price - effect' diminishes over time. Montreal: IT Des Rossiers, Francois, 2002. "Power Lines, Visual Encumbrance and House Values: A Microspatial Approach to Impact Measurement." Journal of Real Estate Research 23, 3, pp. 275 -302. Professor at Laval University, Canada. IM Washington & Oregon: 18, Woverton, M.L. & S.C. Bottemiller, 2003. "Further Analysis of Transmission Line Impact on Residential Property Values." The Appraisal Journal 71,3 July, pp. 244 -252. Professor at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, chief appraiser at Bonneville Power Administration, USDOE. UK and Scotland: 19. Sims, S. and P. Dent, 2005. "High- voltage Overhead Power Lines and Property Values: A Residential Study in the UK." Urban Studies 42, 4 (April), pp. 665 -694. Authors are at Oxford Brookes University. Excellent statistical work; also references. Cleveland: 20. Simons, R.A. and J.D. Saginor 2006. "A Meta- Analysis of the Effect of Environmental Contamination and Positive Amenities on Residential Real Estate Values." Journal of Real Estate Research, 28, 1 pp. 71 -104. Authors are at Cleveland State University. No funding source given. Industry sponsored: NY, ME, CA (Land & 1- family) 21. Kinnard, W.N. Jr. & S.A. Dickey, 1995. "A Primer on Proximity Impact Research: Residential Property Values Near High - Voltage Transmission Lines." Real Estate Issues, 20, 1, Apr. pp. 23 -29. Emeritus Professor from Canada and consultant in California. Conn. & MA: (1 family) 22. Chalmers, J.A. & F. A. Voorvaart. 2009. "High- voltage Transmission Lines: Proximity, Visibility, and Encumbrance Effects." The Appraisal Journal. Summer. Pp, 227 -245. Funded by Northeast Utilities; authors are private appraisers and litigation consultants. Rural and suburban Ct , MA. See comments in Fall 2009 and Summer 2010 Appraisal Journal. See comments by E. Razzi, "Pay Attention to Power Lines," Washington Post, Aug. 8, 2009. B. Other Studies on the Economic Impact of Amenities: General disamenities: 23. Boyle, M.A., and K.A. Kiel. 2001. "A Survey of House Price Hedonic Studies of the Impact of Environmental Externalities." Journal of Real Estate Literature 9, 2, p 117 -144. All kinds: pipelines, nuclear plants, smelters, landfills, but no specific power line studies included. Funded by US EPA. Professor at MIT and College of Holy Cross, Worcester, MA 24. Jackson, T.O.2001. "The Effects of Environmental Contamination on Real Estate: a Literature Review." Journal of Real Estate Literature 9; 2, pp. 93 -116. funded by NSF, Lincoln Institute. Consultant in Bryan, TX Evaluation of Visual Disamenities: 25. Harrison, S., 2002. "Visual Disamenity in the Queensland Wet Tropics: Estimating the Economic Impacts of Overhead Transmission Lines." Economic Analysis and Policy 32, 2, June, pp. 173- 188. U. Queensland, Australia. (hnpact on Tropic tourism; farmland values). Transmission Line Siting: 26. Vajjhala, S.P. and P.S. Fischbeck. 2007. "Quantifying Siting Difficulty: A Case Study of US Transmission Line Siting." Energy Policy 35, pp. 650 -671. (Resources for the Future; Carnegie Mellon U). Good bibliography. Wind Mills as Disamenities: 27. Been, B., R. Wiser, P. Cappers, M. Thayer, & G. Sethi. 2009. "The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values in the United States: A Multi -Site Hedonic Analysis." Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. 146 pp. (revision #1). Funded by US DOE. Excellent bibliography go Tunnels and roads as disamenities: 28. Kilpatrie, J.A., R.L. Throupe, J.1. Carruthers, & A. Krause. 2007. "The Impact of Transit Corridors on Residential Property Values." Journal of Real Estate Research, Jul -Sept, 29, 3, pp. 303 -320. Funded by HUD. Authors are from U. Denver, private consultants, and HUD. (superhighways, I- 95's, tunnels) C. Safety Discussion: 29. Jaconetty, T.A. 2001. "Do You Want your Children Playing Under Those Things? The Continuing Controversy about High Voltage Electro- magnetic Fields, Human Health, and Real Property Values." Assessment Journal May /June, p. 23 -30. Author is Chief Deputy Commissioner, Cook County Board of Review. (Review of many factors; no conclusions). 30. Silicon Valley Real Estate Info: "High Voltage Transmission Lines, Electric and Magnetic Fields (EMFs) and How They Affect Real Estate Prices." Jan. 3, 2008. 31. Kennebec Journal "As transmission lines plans proceed, homeowners ponder offers, safety concerns. May 18, 2008. Energy Efficiency in Florida: 32. Florida PIRG Education Fund, 2005. "Redirecting Florida's Energy: the Economic and consumer Benefits of Clean Energy Policies." Tallahassee. 24 pp. (written by Navin Nayak). Funded by Energy Foundation, a renewable energy industry consortium. 33. Elliot, R.N, & M. Eldridge, A.M. Shipley, J. Laitner, S. Nadel, 2007. "Potential for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to Meet Florida's Growing Energy Demands." Report No. E072. American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy, Washington, DC 34. Petition to determine need for Turkey Point Nuclear Units 6 and 7 electrical power plant, by Florida Power & Light Company. DOCKET NO. 070650 -E 1, ORDER NO. PSC -08- 0237 -FOF -E I http: / /www.floi idapsc.com /library/ 51ings /08 %5CO2812- 08 %5CO2812- 08.pdf 21 Section 5. Value of Property and Job Loss in Miami -Dade County 5.1 Loss in property values In Section 3 above, we identified property valued $4.03 billion in the two -block corridor along the FPL's preferred route. At loss rates of 5 %, 10 %, 20 %, and 34 %, respectively, the corresponding losses in property values are $203 million, $403 million, $803 million, and $1.37 billion for the respective loss rates (Table 5.1, lines A.1- A.4.). The corresponding losses of property tax revenues (valued on the Miami -Dade County millage rate of 22.992) range from $4.6 to $31.5 million annually (Table 5.1, lines B.1- B.4.). At the "best- estimate" loss rate of 10 %, the projected property value loss from transmission lines on US 1 is $403 million, roughly twice FPL's upper estimate of $200 million required to underground these lines. 5.1 Loss in municipal revenues A property value loss of 10% translates to annual property tax losses of $9.3 million (Table 5. 1, B). The losses in other municipal revenues are more difficult to model, but we can make an approximation. Ad- valorem taxes in South Miami constitute 38% of annual municipal revenues, so assuming the hit to property value affects other activities such as construction and retail by a proportional amount, we can assume that total annual revenues lost would be $24.5 million ($9.3 million / 0.34). Loss rates of 20% would produce annual ad- valorem tax loss of $18.6 million and total revenue losses of $49 million. At a 10% value loss, the lost municipal revenues alone would exceed the cost of undergrounding in eight years, and at 20% value loss, municipal revenue losses would exceed the undergrounding costs in four years. 5.2 Job Losses How do property value losses affect the number of jobs in the economy? How does "dollar property loss" translate into "job loss "? Fortunately economists have developed two standard models for measuring economic impacts of different "events" or policy changes, IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for Planners) and REMI (Regional Economic Modeling, Inc.; see IMPLAN.com and REMI.com). Both are excellent analytic tools; 22 each gives a different dimension of the economy, and both must be used to obtain a complete projection of economic impacts. IMPLAN measures the impacts for a single time period. It assumes the full "loss" ripples through the economy all at once. It collapses or consolidates all the economic effects into a single "solution," even if the effects take years to work themselves out and occur at different points in time. IMPLAN deals primarily with the backward or production linkages, with the inter - industry connections, and also with the consumption effect of workers' spending as a result of an impact or policy change. These effects are specified as "direct, indirect, and induced" effects on jobs; their sum is the total job impact. IMPLAN gives us an "X -ray" of the economy. Alter one economic entity, such as land value, and IMPLAN will trace which other components are connected to it and quantitatively how much value flows from one economic entity to another. REMI (Regional Economic Modeling, Inc.) is analogous to a video MRI of the patient yesterday, today, tomorrow, and for the next 40 years. The REMI model measures the interactions between the interconnected economic components. This modeling system includes "blocks" that trace flows and relationships between output, capital and labor demand, population and labor supply, wages, prices, and profits, and market shares (see the sketch of the economic pieces in Figure 5.1). Both tools give the analyst significant insights into the impacts of a disamenity. Once the real estate market "recognizes" the disamenity and prices react, say, by a decline of 10 %, what is the next step? Do the homeowners and business owners see themselves as "poorer," and if so, how is that expressed? If prices and appraisals fall, then taxes will fall and government spending will fall. But the private citizen's reaction to losing 10% of the value of his house may vary widely. The aggregate loss in the Miami -Dade economy of $403 million, almost a half billion dollars when the lines are completed, spread across 4,000 property owners, may lead to different scenarios. How will individuals, families, and businesses express this loss? Will they cut spending across the board, invest less, or save more? Will they cut discretionary spending on restaurants, jewelry, and travel, or insist on cuts in social services, such as nursing care and education? The precise responses of different property owners to declining property values determines how the value losses resonate through the economy. 23 5.2a IMPLAN Job Loss We use IMPLAN as a fast "X -ray" guide to these alternatives, designing alternative programs to evaluate the impact of different levels of value reductions (5 %, 10 %, 20 %, and 34 %) on different arrays of sectors (Table 5.2, lines A 1 -6). At 10% property devaluation, the affected neighborhoods along the corridor would experience from 4,382 to 8,040 jobs lost, with the precise number depending on the economic sectors present and affected by spending reductions (Table 5.2). For instance, if just the real estate sector and government - spending take the full hit, then a total of 4,382 jobs will be lost at the 10% property loss level (Table 5.2, col. 2, line A). But if the cut in sector spending hits air travel, private colleges, and retailing (Table 5.2, line 2), then 5,1.70 jobs will be lost. The most service - intensive "basket" of cuts is our last scenario (Table 5.2, col. 2, line 6) which reduces $403 million in spending on private education, real estate, nursing care facilities, food and drinking places, and jewelry manufacturing. In this case, 8,040 jobs would be lost. All the numbers above assume that the effects are compressed into a single year. We must now turn to REMI and play out similar scenarios with a more complex regional economic model and for a longer time span. 5.2b REMI Job Loss The basic REMI model for Miami -Dade County gives results that are similar to the IMPLAN findings. At a 10% property loss, REMI finds the first year reduction in jobs of 3,790, compared to the IMPLAN loss of 4,382 jobs. (Table 5.3, line A). But REMI allows us to keep the disamenity in place for a number of years and watch as its "unattractiveness" disappears. The underlying assumption entered into REMI is that the disamenity causes an initial drop in value, then people gradually get used to the disamenity and business as usual returns. In a low quality economic area (e.g., industrial, used motor homes, fast food), the assumption of a disappearing disamenity may be founded. In upscale retail and residential areas, however, the desired development may simply move to a location lacking the disamenity, to be replaced by activities of lower economic value. In the former scenario (gradually returning value), the number of lost jobs declines gradually to 3,056 in five years (2015) and to 2,132 in ten years (2020). If 24 the disamenity lasts 30 years, then the impact is still a loss of 838 jobs by 2040. The length and depth of the trough (job loss) due to the disamenity is shown in Graph 5.1 for the 10% rate. Under the second scenario, if the jobs return at all they would be at lower pay grades. The depth of the trough might also vary, as we discovered already from our IMPLAN experiments. For a five -year disamenity, if only the real estate sector is affected, then the REMI model finds that 2,586 jobs per year will be affected for each year, falling to 2,142 jobs per year in five years. (Table 5.3, line BI) If the business service sector takes the hit (line B2), then 7,536 jobs will be affected, falling to about 6,000 jobs in 5 years. If however, nursing takes the hit, then 10,680 jobs per year will be lost, falling to 8,238 jobs by 2015 (line 133). If the disamenity lasts long and affects the service or health industries, then the impact on jobs could be quite severe. 5.3 Economic Effect of Job Loss Let us calculate the economic cost of jobs lost from a 10% property value decline. We assume average income is $50,166, half the countywide family total income of $100,322. We assume the expected job loss number is the average value in Table 5.2, 5955 jobs. The annual cost of the job loss is $298,738,530, approximately $300 million. Recognize that these loss figures do not include the effects of transmission lines on the recovery of property values and jobs lost in the recent economic hyper - recession. Nor do these loss figures include the cost in future development desired for the US 1 corridor. Nor do these loss figures include the extreme cost of infrastructure needed to service the urban sprawl that would result from failure to create density along this corridor. Actual costs to the region could be an order of magnitude higher than those projected in this study. The potential gains of value to society from enhanced electrical transmission must be fairly offset by the economic losses from citing aboveground transmission lines on the US I corridor. 25 Section 6. Epilogue - Stories of the Special Case: a Corridor to Nowhere The entire US 1 development strategy, a decade of collaborative planning and action on the part of local and county government, is jeopardized by FPL's transmission line project, and the anti - sprawl program of compact growth along the corridor is likewise threatened. As a prologue, we provide two cautionary case studies that will never be featured in the regression analysis literature. In 2005 Howard Taft and Charles Gelman bought a 4 -floor town house at 6205 Laguna Path, a part of the famous Aqua Project on Allison Island in North Miami Beach. They paid $1.4 million prior to construction on the basis of models and architectural renderings. Their corner lot was to have a comer window and a spectacular view of the bay channel. However, after it was built, the frontage was marred by a spectacular view of poles and power lines running up West 63`d Street. The owners replaced the corner picture window with opaque glass that lets in light but no images. To this day, the prices Taft and Gelman have been offered for the property, even by the current tenants, is far below the market value of comparable properties that lack power lines in front. The owners have been unwilling to sell at the "disamenity" price, thus the property will not appear among data on disamenity losses. The second case is another transmission corridor that, perhaps, gives us a glimpse of what US 1 with transmission lines might come to look like. In Broward County, State Road 7 / US 441. had been targeted as a "future growth corridor" by the South Florida Regional Planning Council. About 17.5% of Broward's residents reside within a mile of the transmission lines. In 2004, the Urban Land Institute (ULI) identified five major development centers along the corridor and forecast growth of office space, retailing, hotels, and new residences in a study commissioned by the SR 7 / US 441 Collaborative. Yet the corridor never developed and remains a semi - moribund zone. Is it because of the landfill along part of the route? The casino? The remains of an old incinerator site? Or maybe it is the miles of high - voltage transmission wires that parallel and cross the route? We find it ironic indeed that the very conveyance of the energy needed for economic growth can itself prevent the same growth. Siting a new transmission corridor though a developing urban region may create a graveyard monument to the economic potential it destroyed, a corridor to nowhere. 26 Table 1.1 Measures of Sprawl and South Florida Appetite for Land, 1995 -2010 Sources and Methods: col. 1: Population 1995 from BEBR, Fla. Statistical Abstract 2002, Table 1.20. col.2: Urban land 1995 from SFWMD GIS Data, CD -ROM #1, "Land Use, National Wetlands Inventory", West Palm Beach, 1997. col. 3: Computed col.1 /col. 2. col. 4: Elasticity from Weisskoff 2005, Econ or Everglades Restoration, Table 41, p. 87. See computations there. Elasticity is defined as the % change in land divided by the %change in population. col. 5: Population from BEER, Table 1, hhp:// www.bebr.u0.edu /content/census- population- counts - county- and - city- 0orida- 2000 - 2010 -new col.6 = col. 5 - col. 1. col. 7= (cot.5 -col. 1) /(col. 1) col. 8 = col 4 col. 7. col. 9 = col. 8 " col. 2 Urban Pop. (thou) 1995 Urban Land (thou acres) Density (People/ acre 1988 -1995 Land- Pop. Elasticity 2010 Urban Pop (thou.) Pop. abs. chnge, (thou,) 1995.2010 % chge pop. % chge land new urban land (thou. ac.) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A. Lower East Coast (LEC) 1 M -Dade 2,085 248 8.4 0.910 2,496 411 19.7 17.9 44.5 2 Broward 1,438 199 7.2 0.532 1,748 310 21.6 11.5 22.8 3 Palm Beach 995 250 4.0 0.546 1,320 325 317 17.8 44.6 Sum (3 counties) 4,518 697 6.5 0.693 5,564 1,046 23.2 16.1 111.9 B. Upper East Coast (UEC) 4 Martin 114 50 2.3 0.763 146 32 28.1 21.4 10.7 5 St. Lucie 173 73 2.4 0.137 278 105 60.7 8.3 6.1 Sum (2 counties) 287 123 2.3 0.286 424 137 47.7 13.7 16.8 C Lwr. E. Coast (5 counties) 4,805 820 5.9 0.637 5,988 1,183 24.6 15.7 128.7 D. Lower West Coast (LWC) (Collier, Glades, Lee, Hendry) Sum (4 counties) 620 300 2.1 0.879 1,289 669 107.9 94.8 284.4 E Sum: 9 counties 5,425 1,120 4.8 1.080 7,277 1,852 34.1 36.9 413.1 Sources and Methods: col. 1: Population 1995 from BEBR, Fla. Statistical Abstract 2002, Table 1.20. col.2: Urban land 1995 from SFWMD GIS Data, CD -ROM #1, "Land Use, National Wetlands Inventory", West Palm Beach, 1997. col. 3: Computed col.1 /col. 2. col. 4: Elasticity from Weisskoff 2005, Econ or Everglades Restoration, Table 41, p. 87. See computations there. Elasticity is defined as the % change in land divided by the %change in population. col. 5: Population from BEER, Table 1, hhp:// www.bebr.u0.edu /content/census- population- counts - county- and - city- 0orida- 2000 - 2010 -new col.6 = col. 5 - col. 1. col. 7= (cot.5 -col. 1) /(col. 1) col. 8 = col 4 col. 7. col. 9 = col. 8 " col. 2 Table 2.1 IMPLAN Socio- Economic Data of the FPL Corridor by Zip Codes Narrow and Extended, 2008 Data. Notes: • Zip codes for FPL Corridor are: 33129, 30, 33, 43, 46, 56, 58, & 76. Zip codes for the rest of the US1 Corridor include: 33157, 189, 170, 032, 033, & 030 • *The IMPLAN model has potentially 440 producing sectors, but not all are found in any single area. The number of sectors in any given region indicates the number of inter - industry linkages operating in the region. Source: IMPLAN zip -code data files for Miami -Dade County, 2008. % FPL/ Entire % Entire FPL M -D County Corridor to Corr /County Corridor County col t /col 2 Homestead col 4 /col t 1 2 3 4 5 1 Number of Zip Codes* 8 79 10.1 14 17.7 2 Population 206,682 2,398,245 8.6 387,150 16.1 3 Area (sq.miles) 49 1,945 2.5 137 7.0 4 Density (pop /sq mi) 4,218 1,233 342.1 2,816 228.4 5 Employment 159,527 1,441,182 11.1 223,096 15.5 6 No. households 87,078 901,127 9.7 147,673 16.4 7 Total personal income $12.649 $90.402 14.0 $18.754 20.7 (bill. $) 8 Income per household $ $145,257 $100,322 144.8 $126,999 126.6 9 No. IMPLAN sectors ** 222 384 57.8 245 63.8 Notes: • Zip codes for FPL Corridor are: 33129, 30, 33, 43, 46, 56, 58, & 76. Zip codes for the rest of the US1 Corridor include: 33157, 189, 170, 032, 033, & 030 • *The IMPLAN model has potentially 440 producing sectors, but not all are found in any single area. The number of sectors in any given region indicates the number of inter - industry linkages operating in the region. Source: IMPLAN zip -code data files for Miami -Dade County, 2008. Table 2.2 Projecting Population Growth and Expansion in the Corridor: M -D P &Z Dept. and South Miami -Dade Watershed Study. A. Miami Dade Planning & Zoning 14.8 7.8 11.7 23.3 26.4 Minor Statistical Areas 2000 2015 2025 Abs.Chge % Change 2 3 4 5 1 FPL Corridor 2000 -2025 2000.2025 5.2 55,893 79,106 92,559 36,666 65.6 53 120,126 128,766 131,814 11,688 9.7 5.5 80,111 88,586 96,165 16,054 20.0 5.6 32,431 35,188 36,720 4,289 13.2 5,7 25,346 28,104 30,131 4,785 18.9 5,8 35,040 42,501 48,629 13,589 38.8 2 Total: FPL Corridor 348,947 402,251 436,018 87,071 25.0 3 South Extension: 71 41,575 76,248 99,332 57,757 138.9 7.2 39,327 58,490 73,199 33,872 86.1 7,3 32,367 43,205 50,854 18,487 57.1 7,4 48,364 104,187 146,118 97,754 2021 7,5 14,636 36,024 49,979 35,343 241.5 4 Total: South Extension 176,269 318,154 419,482 243,213 138.0 5 Sum Entire Corridor 6 Total: Miami -Dade County 7 % FPL Corridor/ County 8 % So. Extension only /County 9 % Entire Corridor /County 525,216 720,405 855,500 2,253,362 2,724,623 3,046,081 15.5 14.8 7.8 11.7 23.3 26.4 14.3 13.8 28.1 330,284 792,719 11.0 30.7 41.7 62.9 35.2 B Watershed Project Region 952,779 1,033,751 1,161,016 208,237 21.9 % of County: 38.2% 37.9 38.1 Sources: A. Miami -Dade County, Dept of Planning and Zoning, Research Section, Population Estimates and Projections, Feb. 2008. B. South Miami -Dade Watershed Study, 2007, Table 2.1, p. 2.6. Table 3.1 Sample Appraisal Valuation Folio No. Cluc of "Power Line Properties ", Property Address 26- 365t., Two Adj Sq Footage blocks in, both lot size sides of U51 Land Building Market Value 101 -4116- 117 -0010 47 0 5.17Acres 1,466,380 0 1,466,380 2014116- 038 -0010 34 29DO SW 28 LN 11,214 25,4325Q FT $1,525,920 $256,518 $1,782,438 3 014116- 038 -OD20 81 2940 SW 28 IN 0 12,129 SQ FT $727,740 0 $727,740 4 014116- 038 -0070 12 2950 SW 28 IN 2,175 6,250 SQ FT $375,000 $99,823 $47023 5014116 -076.0020 37 2990 SW 28 LN 81,533 29,185 SQ FT $1,751,100 $3,041,190 $4,792,290 6014116-037.0350 2 2902 SW 27 LN 1,916 10,167 SQ FT $66,086 $119,062 $185,148 701-4116 - 037 -0351 1 2966 SW 27 LN 1,015 6,6965Q FT $43,572 $58,575 $102,147 8 01 4116-037 -0360 1 2978 SW 27 LN 1,797 8,122 SQ FT $52,820 $112,473 $165,293 9 014116- 037 -0370 1 2990 SW 27 LN 1,074 8,432 SQ FT $55,310 $63,204 $118,514 10014116 -035 -0320 3 27965W 30 AVE 1,741 4,500 SQ FT $40,162 $61,032 $101,194 11014116. 035.0330 3 3010 SW 27 IN 1,961 4,500 SQ FT 40,162 $64,864 $105,026 12014116- 035 -0331 3 3020 SW 27 IN 1,918 4,500 SQ FT $40,162 $63,253 $103,415 1301- 4116 -035 -0340 3 30365W 27 IN 3,394 9,000 SQ FT $80,325 $139,482 $219,807 14014116.035 -0350 3 3040 SW 27 LN 1,834 4,50054 FT $40,162 $64,293 $104,455 1501 - 4116 - 035 -0360 3 3050 SW 27 LN 1,834 4,5005Q FT $40,162 $64,293 $104,455 16014116 -035 -0370 - 3 3060 SW 27 LN 1,834 4,500 SQ FT $40,162 $64,293 $104,455 17014116 - 035.0380 3 3070 SW 27 LN 1,834 4,500 SQ FT '$40,162 $64,293 $104,455 18014116- 035 -0390 3 30745W 27 LN 1,834 4,500 SQ FT $40,162 $64,293 $104,455 19014116. 035 -0400 3 1,834 4,500 SQ FT $40,162 $64,293 5104,455 20 01- 4116,035 -0401 3 3090 SW 27 LN 1,304 3,375 SQ FT $30,122 $46,732 $76,854 21014116.035.0410 3 30945W 27 LN 1,293 3,137 SQ FT $27,998 $46,347 $74,345 22 014116- 035 -0590 13 3001 SW 28 IN 6,934 10,620 SQ FT 584,100 $21,360 $605,460 2301 - 4116 - 035-0580 81 3015 SW 28 ST 0 2,250 SQ FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 24014116.035 -0570 81 3025 SW 28 ST 0 2,250 SQ FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 25 014116- 035 -0560 81 3035 SW 28 ST 0 2,250 SQ FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 26014116 -035 -0530 32 3029 SW 28 ST 3,660 6,750 SQ FT $371,250 $1,000 $372,250 2701 -0116 -035 -0510 36 3051 SW 2857 3,380 4,500 SQ FT $247,500 $56,519 $304,019 7-8014116.035 -0500 81 30555W 28 ST 0 2,25054 FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 29014116- 035.0490 81 3057 SW 28 ST 0 2,250 SQ FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 3001-4116. 035 -0480 81 3061 SW 28 ST 0 2,250 SQ FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 31014116- 035 -0470 81 3071 SW 2857 0 2,250 SQ FT $123,750 $0 $123,750 3201 -4116- 035 -0440 37 3075 SW 28 ST 3,850 6,75054 FT $371,250 $90,960 $462,210 33 01- 4116. 035-0420 81 3085 SW 28 ST 0 5,963 SQ FT $327,965 $0 $327,965 34014116 -035 -0430 37 3099 SW 28 ST 5,339 3,038 SQ FT $167,090 $165,911 $333,001 35014116 -038 -0350 13 3010 SW 28 LN 6,550 12,300 SQ FT $738,000 $401,627 $1,139,627 36014116 -038 -0420 34 2801 SW 31 AVE 16,824 11,650 SQ FT $699,000 $405,774 $1,104,774 37014116 -038 -0260 11 3000 SW 28 LN 51,312 27,973 SQ FT $1,678,380 $2,848,215 $4,526,595 3801-4116- 038 -0270 41 30445W 28 IN 4,568 6,250 SQ FT $375,000 $203,017 $578,017 39014116.038 -0330 37 3054 SW 28 LN 98,373 25,0005Q FT $1,500,000 $7,000,000 $8,500,000 40014116- 038 -0340 37 2851 SW 31 AVE 82,863 26,809 SQ FT $1,608,540 $5,491,460 $7,100,000 41 014116 -036 -0010 42 2805 SW 32 AVE 36,424 9.91 ACRES $2,916,776 $504,399 $3,421,175 42014116.017 -0100 2 3201 SW 29 ST 2,360 7,494 SQ FT $48,711 $1530510 $202,221 43014116- 017 -0090 2 2890 SW 32 AVE 2,620 646554 FT $42,582 $170,892 $213,474 4401-4116- 017 -0080 2 2880 SW 32 AVE 2,200 6,465 SQ FT $42,582 $141,488 $184,070 45014116.017 -0130 2 28835W 32 CT 2,260 13,899 SQ FT $90,107 $129,475 $219,582 46014116 -017 -0120 2 2893 SW 32 CT 1,886 7,58454 FT $49,597 $117,211 $166,808 47 01.4116 -017 -0300 1 2892 SW 32 CT 883 4,276 SQ FT $27,879 $50,717 $78,596 48 01 4116 - 017 -0310 1 32615W 29 ST 612 2,695 SQ FT $17518 536,064 $53,582 49014116- 017 -0290 2 2886 SW 32 CT 1,194 6,94954 FT $45,053 $71,964 $117,017 50014116 -017 -0281 1 2876 SW 32 CT 1,157 6,949 SQ FT $45,053 $71,907 $116,960 5101- 4116 -017 -0280 1 2870 SW 32 CT 1,752 6,949 SQ FT $45,053 $97,303 $142,356 52014116- 017 -0350 1 2877$W 33 AVE 1,378 6,949 SQ FT $45,053 $82,531 $127,584 53014116 -017 -0340 1 2887 SW 33 AVE 1,128 6,949 SQ FT $45,053 $65,333 $110,386 54014116 -017.0330 2 3281 SW 29 ST 2,200 6,583 SQ FT $42,957 $138,118 $181,075 55014116- 017 -0320 2 32855W 29 ST 2,195 7,374 SQ FT $47,931 $137,067 $184,998 56 014116 -022 -0150 2 3260 SW 29 ST 1,371 17,038 SQ FT $71,148 $106,021 $177,169 5701 -0116 - 0224)140 41 3270 SW 29 ST 4,576 16,819 SQ FT $109,324 $204,662 $313,986 58 014116 -018 -0440 1 2911 SW 33 CT 1,522 7,86954 FT $51,148 $45,809 $96,957 59014116- 018 -0430 2 2901 SW 33 CT 2,419 6,100 SQ FT $39,820 $152,944 $192,764 600141164)18-0420 2 2891 SW 33 CT 1,502 6,100 SQ FT $39,820 $87,327 $127,147 61014116.018 -0410 1 2881 SW 33 CT 1,435 6,100 SQ FT $39,820 $75,889 $115,709 6201-4116- 018.0400 81 0 9,150 SQ FT $59,729 $0 $59,729 63014116 -018 -0570 2 2920 SW 33 CT 2,906 10,557 SQ FT $68,620 $177,678 $246,298 64014116 -018 -0560 1 3351 SW 29 TER 1,182 7,5405Q FT $49,338 $68,230 $117,568 65014116 - 018-0553 2 33635W 29 TER 1,746 6,2505Q FT $40,500 $114,982 $155,482 66 014116 - 018 -0552 2 33695W 29 TER 1,892 7,622 SQ FT $49,872 $119,275 $169,147 67 014116- 018 -0550 2 3375 SW 29 TER 1,431 3,582 SQ FT $23,283 $87,873 $111,156 68 01 -0116 -018 -0551 1 3373 SW 29 TER 1,150 5,434 SQ FT $35,321 $69,840 $105,161 69 014116 -018 -0541 1 3377 SW 29 TER 2,390 7,075 SQ FT $46,172 $154,826 $200,998 70 014116- 018 -0540 2 2935 SW 34 AVE 4,589 7,500 SQ FT $49,150 $338,480 $387,630 71014116,018 -0530 1 2929 SW 34 AVE 1,426 7,500 SQ FT $49,150 $80,212 $129,362 72014116- 018 -0520 2 29275W 34 AVE 2,400 7,500 SQ FT $49,150 $152,752 $201,902 73014116 -019 -1390 1 2960 SW 34 AVE 1,182 6,795 SQ FT $44,421 $68,052 $112,473 7401-4116- 019 -1380 1 2950 SW 34 AVE 1,804 7,250 SQ FT $47,593 $79,852 $127,445 7501-4116- 019.1372 2 2946 SW 34 AVE 3,339 7,250 SQ FT $47,593 $204,667 $252,260 7601-4116- 019 -1371 3 2940 SW 34 AVE 2,576 7,250 SQ FT $47,593 $161,964 $209,557 7701- 4116 -019 -1430 2 2939 SW 35 AVE 2,774 7,250 SQ FT 47,593 $143,358 $190,951 7801-4116. 019.1440 2 2941 SW 35 AVE 1,378 7,250 SQ FT $47,593 $86,963 $134,556 7901-4116.019 -1450 2 2951 SW 35 AVE 1,935 7,250 SQ FT $47,593 $122,339 $169,932 8001-4116 -019 -1460 2 2961 SW 35 AVE 2,013 7,250 SQ FT $47,593 $124,520 $172,113 81014116-019 -1470 2 3443 SW 29 TER 2,241 10,57254 FT $68,718 $141,039 $209,757 82014116,019 -1220 1 2980 SW 35 AVE 2,127 7,000 SQ FT $45,540 $137,569 $183,109 8301 -0116.019 -1230 13 29905W 35 AVE 6,201 7,000 SQ FT $45,500 $488,000 $533,500 84014116- 019 -1310 1 2965 SW 36 AVE 954 7,000 SQ FT $45,540 $56,647 $102,187 85014116 -019 -1320 2 2973 SW 36 AVE 2,201 7,000 SQ FT $45,540 $137,246 $182,786 86014116- 019 -1330 65 3555 SW 29 TER 0 14,756 SO FT $885,360 $18,525 $903,885 87014121 - 002 -1550 12 36215 DIXIE HWY 4,119 13,48954 FT $1,031,908 $10,000 $1,041,908 88014121 -002 -1470 19 3501 S DIXIE HWY 1,997 12,091 SO FT $924,962 $1,000 $925,962 sum northside 538,019 23,992,066 27,230,676 51,222,742 South of US 1 Table 3.1 Cont. Folio No. Cluc Property Address Adj Sq Footage lot size Land Building Market Value 1014115- 041 -0580 11 2600 S DIXIE HW 14,098 24,180 SQ FT $2,418,000 $764,855 $3,182,855 201-4115 - 041 -0570 11 2610 S DIXIE HWY 1,956 5,580 SQ FT $558,000 $71,754 $629,754 3 014115- 041 -0560 11 2698 S DIXIE HWY 1,196 8,370 SQ FT $837,000 $74,436 $911,436 401- 4115- 041 -0720 11 2795 SW 27 AVE 7,691 8,356 SQ FT $752,040 $378,300 $1,130,340 5014116 -078 -0010 26 2775 SW 28 TER 8,647 54,979 SQ FT 5,745,306 $576,239 $6,321,545 6014116 -078 -0020 11 27105 DIXIE HWY 4,928 29,228 SQ FT $2,922,800 $518,948 $3,441,748 701-4116- 078 -0030 11 2720 S DIXIE HWY 18,962 63,190 SQ FT $5,371,150 $1,251,523 $6,622,673 8 01- 4116 - 028.0130 13 2900 SW 28 TER 46,958 25,593 SQ FT $1,279,650 $4,362,953 $5,642,603 901 - 4116 -028 -0170 3 2950 S DIXIE HWY 64,769 52,320 SQ FT $2,333,472 $2,805,771 $5,139,243 1001 -0116 - 007.0250 3 2890 VIRGINIA ST 60,229 46,073 SQ FT $2,073,285 $1,926,715 $4,000,000 11014116 - 007.0220 1 29235W 30 CT 993 7,532 SQ FT $248,556 $24,537 $273,093 12014116 - 001 -0070 65 2906 VIRGINIA ST 0 6,40754 FT $42,286 $12,513 $54,799 1301 -0116 - 001 -0080 2 2914 VIRGINIA ST 2,997 8,680 SQ FT $286,440 122,616 $409,056 14 014116- 007.0110 3 3050 S DIXIE HWY 14,354 17,705 SQ FT $672,790 5774,615 $1,447,405 15014116 -007 -0090 1 2920 SW 30 CT 1,249 6,32254 FT $208,626 $70,480 $279,106 16014116 -027 -0150 40 2901 BRIDGEPORT AVE 8,517 13,797 SQ FT $1,034,775 $749,130 $1,783,905 17014116.027 -0140 13 2911 BRIDGEPORTAVE 1,828 7,500 SQ FT $375,000 $142,162 $517,162 18014116 -027 -0130 1 2919 SRI DG EPORT AVE 853 6,750 SQ FT $337,500 $100 $337,600 1901 -0116.027 -0320 30 2925 BRIDGEPORT AVE 1,156 3,213 SQ FT $0 $0 $177,720 20 01. 4116. 0230310 1 2923 BRIDGEPORTAVE 1,156 2,676 SQ FT $0 $0 $177,720 2101 - 4116 -027 -0160 13 31005 DIXIE HWY 16,831 23,680 S4 FT $1,894,400 $1,175,290 $3,069,690 22014116. 027.0220 3 2942 BRIDGEPORT AVE 3,887 20,250 SQ FT $534,600 $58,627 $593,227 23014116- 048 -0010 it 2999 SW 32 AVE 106,807 8.23 ACRES $17,931,450 $10,000 $17,941,450 24014116- 045.0010 11 2935 MCDONALD ST 2,053 11,458 SQ FT $973,930 $203,132 $1,177,062 2501 -0116 - 042 -0010 62 3198 S DIXIE HWY 1,846 11,761 SQ FT $1,058,490 $121,397 $1,179,887 26014116 -022 -0130 11 3200 S DIXIE HWY 4,183 29,25054 FT $2,632,500 $445,053 $3,077,553 27 01 4116 -022 -0120 3 3220 W DIXIE HWY 3,155 6,390 SQ FT 319,500 $163,494 $482,994 28014116 -022 -0110 13 3250 S DIXIE HWY 2,573 13,292 SQ FT $797,520 $168,508 $966,028 29014116- 022 -0071 3 3244 W TRADE AVE 3,619 7,50054 FT 300,000 $173,962 $473,962 30 014116- 022 -0040 3 3250 W TRADE AVE 14,633 28,000 SQ FT $1,260,000 $665,904 $1,925,904 31014116- 022 -0080 3 3270 W TRADE AVE 10,812 15,000 SQ FT $600,000 $646,040 $1,246,040 32-014116.022 -0090 3 328OWTRADEAVE 4,136 7,500 SQ FT $300,000 $178,627 $478,627 3301-4116.049 -0010 3 3300 S DIXIE HWY 45,059 32,126 SQ FT $2,730,710 $758,660 $3,489,370 34014116.022 -0030 1 3265 BIRD AVE 2,004 13,000 SQ FT $650,000 $13,353 $663,353 35014116 -061 -0010 81 3335 BIRD AVE 0 7,841 SQ FT $392,050 $0 $392,050 36014116 -003 -0070 81 3355 BIRD AVE 0 4,050 SQ FT $202,500 $0 $202,50D 37014116 -047 -0030 81 3375 BIRD AVE 0 6,73054 FT $335,500 $0 $335,500 38 014116 - 047,0020 13 3350 S DIXIE HWY 9,088 17,897 SQ FT $1,521,245 $584,834 $2,106,079 39 014116447 -0010 19 3400 S DIXIE HWY 5,040 32,735 SQ FT $2,946,150 $377,777 $3,323,927 40014116-046.0010 26 M905 DIXIE HWY 2,912 14,331 SQ FT $1,218,130 $170,943 $1,389,078 41014121 - 001.0150 1 3000 ELIZABETH ST 1,052 5,896 SQ FT $188,672 $28,404 $217,076 42014121- 001 -0160 1 3420 BIRD AVE 1,543 6,600 SQ FT $211,200 $44,954 $256,154 4301 -0121- 001 -0180 1 3011 NEWYORK ST 1,078 6,000 SQ FT $192,000 $30,354 $222,354 4401 -0121 - 002 -0250 11 3490BIRDAVE 8,738 41,101 SQ FT $2,109,284 $605,838 $2,715,122 45014121- 002 -0560 98 3500 S DIXIE HWY 925 45,300 SQ FT $4,303,500 $17,399 $4,320,899 Sum south side= 514711 0 73,100,007 21,270,197 94,725,649 Source: Mlami -Dade County, County Appraiser's Files on line, Accessed Od -Dec., 2010 hk :// nl am dadC gOV /pa /pnoP2rtV search.d5p Table 3.2 Sample of County Land Use Codes (CLUC) found in Power Line Property from Table 3.1. Commercial 0011 Retail Outlet 0012 Repairs, Non - Automotive 0013 Office Building 0019 Automotive or Marine 0026 Service Station - Automotive Industrial/Warehouse 0032 Light mfg and food processing 0034 Canneries , bottler 0036 Heavy industry or lumber yard 0037 Warehouse or Storage Institutional 0040 Municipal 0041 Educational, private 0042 Club or hall, private 0047 Dade County 0098 Federal Multi- Family 0003 Multi- family 3 or more units Not used 0062 Railroad Assessment 0065 Parkin / /vacant lot enclosed Single Family 0001 Residential, single family 0002 Duplex 0010 Townhouse Vacant 0081 Vacant land Source: Selected from Miami -Dade County Property Appraiser's Office, Web site, from CLUC that appear in our Table 3.1, Col. 2. Table 3.3 Summary Table of Summed Appraisal Values by Segments, Brickell to 136 St, Both Sides of US 1. West # prties 1,255 streets Adj Sq Ft Land Value Bldg Value sum Market v of US 1 18 opt 1 3rd Ave, 122,023 12,978,780 13,441,935 26,420,715 Dadeland 1,730 4th St to 15th Rd 276,551,566 109 a 16 -26 505,656 26,812,968 27,426,144 56,188,017 88 b 26 -36 538,019 23,992,066 27,230,676 51,222,742 29 c 36 -46 163,032 72,688,020 6,556,191 79,244,211 40 d' 46 -56 135,598 35,702,734 7,616,392 45,744,776 142 d" 46 -56 411,448 38,493,510 30,070,002 68,563,512 21 e 57 -66 1,162,416 50,195,938 70,231,925 194,332,949 75 f 66 -76 4,555,411 118,371,353 123,369,756 553,541,109 134 g 78 -88 1,066,884 78,259,882 49,461,447 127,721,329 27 h 86 -96 2,533,060 57,525,060 30,571,005 385,096,065 301 i 96 -106 1,455,400 66,649,510 50,881,298 145,889,438 48 j 106 -116 328,413 22,569,132 8,563,183 40,706,555 49 k 116 -126 104,445 10,975,862 5,621,235 16,597,097 25 1 126 -136 322,777 22,729,183 16,437,273 38,663,800 1,088 it above total above 13,282,559 624,965,218 454,036,527 1,803,511,600 1,106:h optl 13,404,582 637,943,998 467,478,462 1,829,932,315 East # prties 1,255 streets Adj Sq Ft Land Value Bldg Value sum Market v of US 1 49 opt 1 3rd Ave, 395,204 21,393,737 19,893,141 41,749,688 Dadeland 1,730 4th St to 15th Rd 276,551,566 118 a 16 -26 468,389 48,206,038 31,960,019 80,166,057 45 b 26 -36 514,511 73,100,007 21,270,197 94,725,649 89 c 36 -46 352,192 57,219,860 18,174,221 75,394,081 175 all 46 -56 472,020 36,126,784 21,751,656 86,839,120 14 d' 46 -56 47,921 7,822,717 5,690,738 13,513,455 259 e 57 -66 1,425,739 100,688,124 76,432,895 229,896,429 98 f 66 -76 1,757,825 229,502,100 57,371,638 370,773,738 122 g 78 -88 1,878,164 299,507,454 91,947,705 391,455,159 23 h 86 -96 516,340 79,399,934 23,202,218 102,602,152 196 i 96 -106 660,124 81,568,397 34,767,012 137,459,739 21 j 106 -116 401,699 58,510,480 20,926,779 79,437,259 33 k 116 -126 551,775 89,149,900 28,881,863 121,535,388 13 1 126 -136 517,320 81,138,049 18,102,119 99,240,168 1,206 it above 9,564,019 1,241,939,844 450,479,060 1,883,038,394 Source & Method: The power line route was traced on Miami -Dade County Appraiser's File, and all Properties were listed, as in Appendix Table 3.1. These were then summed and presented in this Table. 1,255 total -with optl 9,959,223 1,263,333,581 470,372,201 1,924,788,082 Total # prties Adj Sq Ft Land Value Bldg Value sum Market v Dadeland 1,730 276,551,566 West 1,106 total -with optl 13,404,582 637,943,998 467,478,462 1,829,932,315 East 1,255 total -with earl 9,959,223 1,263,333,581 470,372,201 1,924,788,082 SUM: 4,091 - 4,031,271,963 Source & Method: The power line route was traced on Miami -Dade County Appraiser's File, and all Properties were listed, as in Appendix Table 3.1. These were then summed and presented in this Table. E E 0 E 8 N N U a` T N a 0 a` c 0 u m w a c J 0 O a N N 2 N r O a ; a ro 'n m FK 8 o oar �LNy tt ,�I h w �i� a w 0 0 9 N 6 K N <i Ip K �� �g� g^ .. 8 - �a $., d$� i f E ¢ ¢ ^- 'a 8n $5� - a= B a $��� � 9 °� � Tnhla A R _ Statistical snalvsis of literature percent value loss Study type Author Journal type n Mean SD Survey Realtor all 12 10.29% 9.57% Regression All all 18 6.43% 6,81% Regression All peer- review 9 8.60% 7.74% Regression All non -peer- review 9 4.26% 5.30% Regression Academic all 7 12.64% 6.90% Regression Industry all 6 2.72% 2.42% Regression Hybrid all T -test 2.99% Regr ession Academic peer- review 7.09% Regression Industry peer - review 4 2.73% 3.15% Statistic Author Journal Type t P Academic vs. T -test Industry Peer - reviewed 2.99 0.013 Academic vs. T -test Industry All 3.59 0.004 All Peer - reviewed vs. non -peer- reviewed 1.39 0.093 —T-test All Peer - reviewed vs. non -peer- reviewed T -test (removed outlier) 2.18 0.027 Table 5.1 Summary: Property Adjacent to the Power Lines Total # properties Adj Sq Ft Land Value $ Bldg Value $ Sum Market Value $ 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Dadeland 1,730 276,551,566 2 West (w/ opt 1) 1,106 13,404,582 637,943,998 467,478,462 1,829,932,315 3 East(w /opt 1) 1,255 9,959,223 1,263,333,581 470,372,201 1,924,788,082 4 Total: 4,091 4,031,271,963 A. Loss in Property Value % loss rate: $ value lost: 1. Lower boundary, all studies 0.05 201,563,598 2. Aver. Montreal urban, 2002 0.10 403,127,196 3. Upper boundary, 2002 0.20 806,254,393 4. Un. Quebec (1982) 0.34 $1,370,632,467 B. Loss in Property Taxes per year* 1. Lower boundary, all studies " 0.05 4,634,370 2. Aver. Montreal urban, 2002 0.10 9,268,741 3. Upper boundary, 2002 0.20 18,537,482 4. Un. Quebec (1982) 0.34 $31,513,719 ( "Miami -Dade millage rate: 22.9921) Source: Sum of individual property records, Miami -Dade County Property Appraiser Office, on line. Table 5.2 Employment Impacts of 5, 10, 20, and 34% Loss of Property Value: IMPLAN Model Various Sectors, Single Year Only Source: Computations using IMPLAN Model with Miami -Dade County Data Total Jobs Lost: Direct., Indirect and Induced Model at5 %loss at 10% at 20% at 34% IMPLAN Sector Nos, 1 2 4 5 A Basic loss of real estate value & 2,191 4,382 8,764 14,899 360,437 government spending 1 Money, real estate, hospital, drink & dining, 2 349 4,698 9,396 15,973 397, 413,354,360,133 retail, pharmaceutical mfg. 2 real estate, air travel, private colleges, 2,585 5,170 10,340 17,578 392, 329, 360, 332, 359 retailing 3 Boat building, performg arts, scientific 2,979 5,958 11,916 20,257 402, 376, 135, 291, 383 research, bioi prep, travel agencies 4 Museums, family care services, private 31392 6,784 13,568 23,066 406, 400, 397, 330, 32125, 395,394 hospitals, retail, home care, office physicians 5 Fitness centers, food, drinking, surgical 3,327 6,654 13,308 22,624 407, 413, 305, 319, 113 instruments, wholesale, printing Private education, real estate, nursingg 6 facilities, food services, jewelry 4,020 8,040 16,080 27,336 391, 413, 398, 310, 360 manufacturing total 20,843 41,686 83,372 141,732 Source: Computations using IMPLAN Model with Miami -Dade County Data Table 5.3 REMI Model: Job Loss over Time: Different Scenarios and Time Periods Model or Sector of Impact: No. yrs: % value loss Year: 1 ... 2011 ... Jobs Lost per Year 5 ... 10 ... 2015 ... 2020 ... 20 ... 2030 ... 30 2040 A General Reduction 5% 1,895 1,528 ... 1,066 ... 639 ... 419 10% 3,790 3,056 2,132 1,278 838 20% 7,580 6,112 4,264 2,556 1,676 34% 12,886 10,390 7,249 4,345 2,849 B Sector Impacts on Economy: 1 Real Estate, only 5% 1,293 ... 1,071 10% 2,586 2,142 20% 5,172 4,284 34% 8,792 7,283 2 Business Services, only 5% 3,768 ... 2,954 10% 7,536 5,908 20% 15,072 11,816 34% 25,622 20,087 3 Nursing, only 5% 5,340 ... 4,119 10% 10,680 8,238 20% 21,360 16,476 34% 36,312 28,009 Source: REMI Model for Miami -Dade County, with 2008 Data Base, run in Dec. 2010 See accompanying graphs f!5 N yy U N L � u L Q O O O b O T Y C M 4 W A T C S C O py U V 'O C ro M a LU o c F" U G N 91 u W G v c CO y •G V LJ t1. t L C 0 M f!5 N yy U N L � u L Q O O O b O T Y C M 4 W A T C S C O py U V 'O C ro M a LU o c F" U MIAMI -DARE COUNTY, FLORIDA ZIP CODE BOUNDARY xw mmn sr Nw asns sr Ne nssm sr Nc zisiN s. _.__..__ ...................._ .xw MItX i NE 9omN iE i! 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